Stopping Climate Change: A Practical Plan 3 Tons Carbon Dioxide Per Person Per Year
Stopping climate change is like the weather. We complain. But nothing changes. The problem is global. How can I make a difference? Each of us is in the same place as the other 319 million Americans, or the more than 7 billion people in the world.
The good news is that there's a practical standard we can use to measure if we're living sustainably.
It's simple. It's 3 tons of carbon dioxide emissions per person per year. At the average individual rate of 3 tons, yearly total global carbon dioxide emissions would be 21 gigatons. That's equal to the global natural carbon sinks in the ocean, soil, biomass that keeps the amount of global carbon dioxide in the atmosphere level.
The global average is now 4.5 tons carbon dioxide a person per year. Drop from 4.5 tons of carbon dioxide per year to 3 tons and game over. 7 billion people times 3 tons each is 21 gigatons. That's it for climate change. Forget about rising seas, crop failures, Miami and New York underwater, Back to watching football.
But the devil is in the details. While the global average is 4.5 tons, the U.S. average per person is 17.5 tons a person per year. China is 6.4 tons a person per year. Since there's a lot more people in China, they have now passed us as carbon dioxide champ.
For the big rich emitters like the U.S., reaching 3 tons a person means a transformation of our polluting ways. Fossil fuels must be used without carbon pollution or left in the ground if there's any hope of getting to 3 tons a person.
For small poor emitters, it means following a development path that goes directly to sustainable renewable resources and skips the high pollution fossil fuel road.
If everyone followed the path of the U.S., and now China, relying on polluting fossil fuels, we would need several earth's to deal with the consequences of our pollution. If we do not pursue a global convergence on emissions of 3 tons per person of carbon dioxide, and instead continue our mega-pollution, we will destroy our civilization and ourselves.
A global convergence on 3 tons per person per year of carbon dioxide emissions is the real global measure for social and climate justice. This should be the basis for policy, diplomacy, and action.The 3 Tons SolutionThe solution is an aggressive pursuit of an ecological global growth initiative that makes economic growth mean ecological improvement, makes us all sustainably richer and tackles climate change.
We need to invest trillions in building the renewable resource infrastructure and the sustainable ecological industrial systems where all outputs are used as inputs in other systems.
Trillions of productive investment over the next thirty years means enormous profits, millions of sustainable jobs in sustainable communities. It means transforming agriculture, and forestry as well as industry.It means using existing proven technology which is only getting better by the day.
For example, the US coal generating plant “fleet” of 1,309 plants with a capacity of 343,757 megawatts produces 1.6 trillion kilowatt hours of electricity a year. This amounts to 5.32 tons of carbon per American per year all by itself. This represents 177% of the U.S sustainable carbon allowance.
Investment of $90 billion a year in photovoltaics for 20 years, at $1.50 per watt with storage, could replace coal generation. It would cover a block of land 137 miles on each side, or 217.5 square miles per state. This can be from roadways, rooftops, marginal land. Renewables will increasingly come not in big plants but in building materials, from roads and small vertical axis wind turbines.
Reality is that we'd build a mix of complementary wind, solar, and other renewables and link the systems with High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) power lines and storage.Global Climate ClubThe United States and China, the world's two biggest economies and biggest emitters can lead the way by starting the Global Climate Club and committing to meet the sustainable 3 ton carbon dioxide per person target.
The stick is that nations who don't join the Climate Club will be subject to stiff import tariffs .
The carrot is the establishment of a means to transfer capital and technology for renewable energy and sustainability from rich polluters to poor nations. A Basic Energy Entitlement (BEE) would place assessments on all energy use, 1 cent per kilowatt hour equivalent, and invest in renewables in poor nations. A commitment of one percent of GDP will support global investment in renewable transformation and drive the global convergence on 3 tons of carbon.
This is the basis for a sustainable and prosperous future. Each of us can pursue the 3 tons solution for our homes, or, if we are Barack Obama and Xi Jinping, for the planet.
_____________
Roy Morrison's latest book Sustainability Sutra: An Ecological Investigation will be published March 7, 2017 by Select Books in NY. The Chinese translation of his book Ecological Democracy will be published in 2016 by China Environmental Press in Beijing.
Fact check:
3 tons of global carbon and 70 gigajoules of primary energy per person:
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA), 2011. World Economic and Social Survey 2011 - The Great Green Technological Transformation, Chapter 2.On line:http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wess/wess_current/2011wess_chapter2.pdf
3 tons of carbon is expected carbon dioxide that would be released is 70 gigajoules or 19,443 kWH equivalent of primary energy was produced by fossil fuels
Carbon Emissions
NOAA Research, 2015. “Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide”. Earth Systems Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. On line; http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
US. Coal Plants
U.S. Coal Plants
343,757 MW Name plate capacity 2011 coal fleet US 1,309 plants 1,581,115 Net generation thousands of Megawatt Hours 2014 2,980,373 If 100 percent load
53.05% Actual Load factor
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/html/epa_01_01.html https://www.eia.gov/electricity/capacity/
U.S. Coal Carbon Pollution
http://www.eia.gov/coal/production/quarterly/co2_article/co2.htm
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=73&t=11
10,428 Average Heat Rate BTU/kWh US Coal Plants
http://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/html/epa_08_01.html
2.15 Average Pounds of Carbon dioxide per kWH 1,581,115 Coal Plant Net Generation Thousand of MWH
1.70 Total Carbon Gigatons
1.87 gigatons carbon in 2011 according to US EIA/14.4 gigatons worldwide
(Differences attriibuted to use of coal for process heat) http://www.climatecentral.org/news/coal-plants-lock-in-300-billion-tons-of-co2-emissions-17950
U.S.Coal Emission Carbon Dioxide Tons per Person Per year
5.32 tons/person/year
177.20% %of sustainable emissions @3 tons perperson er year
U.S. Coal % of Global total of sustainable emissions @3 tons per person per year 8.90%
Global Coal % of Global Total sustainable emissions at 3 tons per person per year 68.57%
PV to Replace Coal
PV Installation Costs
$1.50 per watt installed
$1,500,000 per megawatt
6 acres land per MW
PV Output % Capacity by Region
19.00% South west US desert PV annual capacity output 16.90% California
15.60% Central US
16.00% Northeast
PV to Replace Coal Using Central US Capacity Factors
911,040 net generation thousands of megawatt hours per $ trillion PV investment
$1.74 trillion investment PV needed to replace all US coal output 10,875 square miles
137 mile square land mass on each side 218 per state square miles
Yearly Investment in PV Over 2 years to Replace Coal
$90 Billion per year investment for 20 years
The PV % capacity output numbers are reasonable based on my field experience. NREL assumed 17% capacity average factor. The seasonal capacity numbers reported by EIA now are much hgher. I used the most conservative capacity factor of 15.60% for Central US to calculate coal replacement by PV
Stopping climate change is like the weather. We complain. But nothing changes. The problem is global. How can I make a difference? Each of us is in the same place as the other 319 million Americans, or the more than 7 billion people in the world.
The good news is that there's a practical standard we can use to measure if we're living sustainably.
It's simple. It's 3 tons of carbon dioxide emissions per person per year. At the average individual rate of 3 tons, yearly total global carbon dioxide emissions would be 21 gigatons. That's equal to the global natural carbon sinks in the ocean, soil, biomass that keeps the amount of global carbon dioxide in the atmosphere level.
The global average is now 4.5 tons carbon dioxide a person per year. Drop from 4.5 tons of carbon dioxide per year to 3 tons and game over. 7 billion people times 3 tons each is 21 gigatons. That's it for climate change. Forget about rising seas, crop failures, Miami and New York underwater, Back to watching football.
But the devil is in the details. While the global average is 4.5 tons, the U.S. average per person is 17.5 tons a person per year. China is 6.4 tons a person per year. Since there's a lot more people in China, they have now passed us as carbon dioxide champ.
For the big rich emitters like the U.S., reaching 3 tons a person means a transformation of our polluting ways. Fossil fuels must be used without carbon pollution or left in the ground if there's any hope of getting to 3 tons a person.
For small poor emitters, it means following a development path that goes directly to sustainable renewable resources and skips the high pollution fossil fuel road.
If everyone followed the path of the U.S., and now China, relying on polluting fossil fuels, we would need several earth's to deal with the consequences of our pollution. If we do not pursue a global convergence on emissions of 3 tons per person of carbon dioxide, and instead continue our mega-pollution, we will destroy our civilization and ourselves.
A global convergence on 3 tons per person per year of carbon dioxide emissions is the real global measure for social and climate justice. This should be the basis for policy, diplomacy, and action.The 3 Tons SolutionThe solution is an aggressive pursuit of an ecological global growth initiative that makes economic growth mean ecological improvement, makes us all sustainably richer and tackles climate change.
We need to invest trillions in building the renewable resource infrastructure and the sustainable ecological industrial systems where all outputs are used as inputs in other systems.
Trillions of productive investment over the next thirty years means enormous profits, millions of sustainable jobs in sustainable communities. It means transforming agriculture, and forestry as well as industry.It means using existing proven technology which is only getting better by the day.
For example, the US coal generating plant “fleet” of 1,309 plants with a capacity of 343,757 megawatts produces 1.6 trillion kilowatt hours of electricity a year. This amounts to 5.32 tons of carbon per American per year all by itself. This represents 177% of the U.S sustainable carbon allowance.
Investment of $90 billion a year in photovoltaics for 20 years, at $1.50 per watt with storage, could replace coal generation. It would cover a block of land 137 miles on each side, or 217.5 square miles per state. This can be from roadways, rooftops, marginal land. Renewables will increasingly come not in big plants but in building materials, from roads and small vertical axis wind turbines.
Reality is that we'd build a mix of complementary wind, solar, and other renewables and link the systems with High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) power lines and storage.Global Climate ClubThe United States and China, the world's two biggest economies and biggest emitters can lead the way by starting the Global Climate Club and committing to meet the sustainable 3 ton carbon dioxide per person target.
The stick is that nations who don't join the Climate Club will be subject to stiff import tariffs .
The carrot is the establishment of a means to transfer capital and technology for renewable energy and sustainability from rich polluters to poor nations. A Basic Energy Entitlement (BEE) would place assessments on all energy use, 1 cent per kilowatt hour equivalent, and invest in renewables in poor nations. A commitment of one percent of GDP will support global investment in renewable transformation and drive the global convergence on 3 tons of carbon.
This is the basis for a sustainable and prosperous future. Each of us can pursue the 3 tons solution for our homes, or, if we are Barack Obama and Xi Jinping, for the planet.
_____________
Roy Morrison's latest book Sustainability Sutra: An Ecological Investigation will be published March 7, 2017 by Select Books in NY. The Chinese translation of his book Ecological Democracy will be published in 2016 by China Environmental Press in Beijing.
Fact check:
3 tons of global carbon and 70 gigajoules of primary energy per person:
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA), 2011. World Economic and Social Survey 2011 - The Great Green Technological Transformation, Chapter 2.On line:http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wess/wess_current/2011wess_chapter2.pdf
3 tons of carbon is expected carbon dioxide that would be released is 70 gigajoules or 19,443 kWH equivalent of primary energy was produced by fossil fuels
Carbon Emissions
NOAA Research, 2015. “Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide”. Earth Systems Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. On line; http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
US. Coal Plants
U.S. Coal Plants
343,757 MW Name plate capacity 2011 coal fleet US 1,309 plants 1,581,115 Net generation thousands of Megawatt Hours 2014 2,980,373 If 100 percent load
53.05% Actual Load factor
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/html/epa_01_01.html https://www.eia.gov/electricity/capacity/
U.S. Coal Carbon Pollution
http://www.eia.gov/coal/production/quarterly/co2_article/co2.htm
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=73&t=11
10,428 Average Heat Rate BTU/kWh US Coal Plants
http://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/html/epa_08_01.html
2.15 Average Pounds of Carbon dioxide per kWH 1,581,115 Coal Plant Net Generation Thousand of MWH
1.70 Total Carbon Gigatons
1.87 gigatons carbon in 2011 according to US EIA/14.4 gigatons worldwide
(Differences attriibuted to use of coal for process heat) http://www.climatecentral.org/news/coal-plants-lock-in-300-billion-tons-of-co2-emissions-17950
U.S.Coal Emission Carbon Dioxide Tons per Person Per year
5.32 tons/person/year
177.20% %of sustainable emissions @3 tons perperson er year
U.S. Coal % of Global total of sustainable emissions @3 tons per person per year 8.90%
Global Coal % of Global Total sustainable emissions at 3 tons per person per year 68.57%
PV to Replace Coal
PV Installation Costs
$1.50 per watt installed
$1,500,000 per megawatt
6 acres land per MW
PV Output % Capacity by Region
19.00% South west US desert PV annual capacity output 16.90% California
15.60% Central US
16.00% Northeast
PV to Replace Coal Using Central US Capacity Factors
911,040 net generation thousands of megawatt hours per $ trillion PV investment
$1.74 trillion investment PV needed to replace all US coal output 10,875 square miles
137 mile square land mass on each side 218 per state square miles
Yearly Investment in PV Over 2 years to Replace Coal
$90 Billion per year investment for 20 years
The PV % capacity output numbers are reasonable based on my field experience. NREL assumed 17% capacity average factor. The seasonal capacity numbers reported by EIA now are much hgher. I used the most conservative capacity factor of 15.60% for Central US to calculate coal replacement by PV